Every four years, the World Cup comes around, and the same old debates start about which team will win it and how. But with 2026 being different to tournaments that have gone before, thanks to the increased number of teams taking part and the extra knockout round, it begs the question: what will it actually take to lift the trophy this summer?
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Master Penalty Shootouts or Go Home
Roughly 20% of knockout games at recent World Cups went to extra time, with half of them being decided by a penalty shootout. Reaching the semi-finals probably means a team will have to come through one shootout. The team that takes this seriously, such as Argentina, as proven by their exploits at the 2022 World Cup and their standing in the current World Cup betting, are often the ones that triumph. This means knowing your takers in advance and practising spot kicks.
Exploit Dead Ball Situations
At recent World Cups, set pieces accounted for over 20% of goals scored, a proportion that has remained remarkably consistent. For all the continued tactical evolution in open play, the dead ball remains one of the most reliable, and its popularity is growing again. Arsenal, who won the Premier League and made the Champions League final last season, mastered dead ball situations to great effect. And due to the heat at the tournament, which we will come onto shortly, there will be more nations looking to capitalise on free kicks and corners.
Prepare for the Heat — and the Travel
No World Cup will place such extreme and varied demands on players as this one. The tournament spans 16 cities across three countries, with temperatures in some areas regularly reaching 35 degrees and above. FIFA has mandated hydration breaks to take place in all matches, but no amount of water breaks will fully compensate for competing in the heat and humidity.
The travel demands compound it. Teams could be playing a group match in one city or country, and then fly into the red hot heat in Texas, for example, within days. As well as the travel demands, there’s the acclimatisation that goes with it. England prepared for this as best as possible by using heat acclimatisation chambers, but it’s still going to be difficult for players not used to the conditions. The countries with players who are familiar with playing in the heat they’re likely to face will have an advantage.
Build for the Marathon, Not the Sprint
Teams that make the final will play a total of eight games, with the Round of 32 adding an extra stage to pass. Combine the number of games with the travel and heat demands, and it makes squad depth and rotation more important than ever. The teams that go far in the tournament will be the ones that rotate intelligently and manage minutes, meaning the gap in quality between the starting XI and the rest of the squad will become more evident with some teams.
Conclusion
Winning the World Cup isn’t easy for any team. However, the 2026 edition presents extra demands due to the location of the tournament and everything that comes with it. The teams that address all of the above, penalties, set pieces, the heat, the travel, squad depth, will give themselves the best possible chance of going all the way.