Round number 9 of the Malta Premier League is just around the corner and there is only one fixture where you can say “this is the top dog”. It is the clash between Santa Lucia and Birkirkara. As the mathematical football predictions state, there is only a 20% chance of Santa Lucia taking the home win and the full 3 points. Besides this fixture, you can basically flip the coins and guess who is going to take how many points because Malta Premier League is one the hardest to predict football leagues in the world. This statement indeed has some consequences.
We have analysed the odds of some of the most significant bookmakers and came to a “not so positive” conclusion. Since the average payout by English Premier League, German Bundesliga and hundreds of other competitions is above 95%, Maltese Premier league only has it slightly over 89%. There are simply no football value bets in our highest league and this means one thing: You probably should think twice before betting on it. With a market margin higher than 10%, there is simply not too much space for punters to be profitable.
We know a similar scenario from English Premier League 2020, when the league results went from highly predictive to poorly predictive. Usually this means that any team can beat the top dog and is a sign of a league with a high quality. Is it the same case for Malta? I believe you know the answer.
Let’s look at other fixtures played in the next round: The football predictions for Hibernians vs Hamrun Spartans is speaking a clear language. Home win for Hibernians is likely to happen in 43.46% cases, a Draw in 26.38% of cases and Away win in 30.16% cases. This is indeed the fair market without any profit for the bookie. The fair odds for this case would be:
2.30 (home win), 3.79 (draw) and 3.32 (away win)
What do the bookies give on average?
2.10 (home win), 3.25 (draw) and 3.00 (away win)
Do you see the problem? No matter what you do, there is no chance for you to be profitable on these kinds of bets in the long run. This deal is even worse than playing slots (the payout by slot machines is on average 4% better). But please: Do not play slot machines! They are dangerous for anybody touching them.
What about Sirens vs Balzan football predictions? Home win 36.64%, Draw 26.07%, Away win 37.29%. Bookmakers odds: 2.40, 3.60 and 2.40 – which gives you the payout of 90%. Again no value bet.
Gudja United vs Floriana predictions? Home win 20.52%, Draw 23.72%, Away win 55.76%. Bookmakers odds: 2.55, 3.40 and 2.35 – and this is even worse 89.94%. Again no value bet.
Sliema Wanderers vs Valletta football predictions? Home win 28.19%, Draw 24.73%, Away win 47.07%. Bookmakers odds 2.8, 3.6 and 2.05 reached a new payout bottom of only 89.07%.
Mosta vs Gzira United football predictions? Home win 24.47%, Draw 23.12%, Away win 52.41%. Bookmakers odds 2.6, 3.5 and 2.25 with a “fantastic” payout 89.70%.
The funny thing is that the bookmakers have very similar odds. None of them is really competing for this league. I guess they know why and maybe you should take my advice from earlier. Do not tolerate bad deals! Especially when it comes to betting.